Holly Springs, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS62 KRAH 110627
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
227 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will continue to
extend over central North Carolina this morning. This high pressure
will gradually weaken and drift southeastward through mid week,
returning our area to more typical summertime weather, with
scattered late-day showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Monday...

* Shower/storm coverage increases today, with pockets of locally
  heavy rainfall possible.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak/diffuse frontal zone
stretching SW-to-NE through the CWA, as weakening high pressure
centered off the Mid Atlantic coast extends narrowly to the SW to
the N of the frontal zone, across our NW and far N. This front
separates surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70 to its NW from
low-mid 70s to its SE, where above-normal (> 2") PWs reside. A batch
of showers over our SW continues tracking to the NW, following the
mean low-mid level flow, and looks to be further supported by moist
upglide at around 300K. The associated sloped frontal zone (evident
up through 850 mb, according to 00z UA analyses) will lift steadily
NNW today as the offshore high drifts to the SSW, allowing greater
PW to spread further into the CWA, with values nearing 125% of
normal. Forecast soundings from multiple models reveal a deep warm
cloud layer with an LCL-0C depth aoa 4 km today through tonight,
highest SE, favoring warm rain processes, and cell motions should be
somewhat slow given the weak 850-400 mb flow, toward the NW before
becoming northerly tonight with a slowly veering low level flow.
Following the CAM trends, we should see gradually increasing
coverage by late morning, peaking this afternoon into early evening,
then decreasing and pushing into our NW sections (as southerly 850
mb jetting spreads into W NC) after nightfall, potentially
correlated with an inland-tracking elevated sea breeze. Congealing
storm clusters and training cells remain possible and may lead to
isolated pockets of high rainfall totals and minor flooding. The
deep layer bulk shear will remain poor today, and SBCAPE is likely
to be mostly under 1000 J/kg, but CAPE could be higher across the N
where cloud cover will be a bit less. And with the deep warm cloud
layer and high moisture flux, high rain rates may occur. Cloud cover
and rain chances will hold down the diurnal temp range, with highs
expected to only reach around 80 to the lower 80s. Lows tonight will
be seasonable, in the upper 60s/lower 70s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

The offshore surface high will have drifted down our latitude while
weakening and pushing further offshore, leaving us in a deepening S
to SW flow as weak lee troughing develops over the Piedmont.
Featured in this flow is modest but evident 850 mb jetting from the
Gulf into the western and central Carolinas, correlated with
continued above normal PW (125-135% of normal), highest across our W
and N, where models also place an area of enhanced upper divergence.
The HREF probabilities for rain are highest (55-70%) across our
southern half Tue afternoon, but given the higher PW in the NW,
potential dynamic contribution to forcing, and indicators of pockets
of 1000-1500 J/kg CWA-wide, likely pops across the entire forecast
area seems warranted. The only caveat to this is the retrograding
mid level anticyclone which drifts westward to over FL Tue,
resulting in a period of weak mid level ridging over the Carolinas
from morning into afternoon, corresponding to peak heating (although
considerable multi-layer clouds will limit that). This brief ridging
could hinder deep lift somewhat. But there are also indications in
the larger scale models that we could see MCVs from Gulf Coast
convection riding N then NE across our area late in the day through
Tue night, so will keep chance pops going through the night, near
climo W and just isolated in the E for now. We`ll start the day with
seasonable temps, so even with broken cloud decks, we should be able
to reach highs in the low-mid 80s with thicknesses just a few meters
below normal. Lows Tue night 69-75 under mostly cloudy skies. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 PM Sunday...

Surface high pressure that has been well established for the last
several days northeast of here will begin the period offshore of New
England, but will at last be shunted east of the area. Ridging
associated with the surface high has kept a northerly component to
the wind locally for quite a while, but the low level flow Tuesday,
Wednesday, and Thursday will have a sustained southerly component
for several days. This will finally allow for a return to normal
highs by Thursday, around 90 degrees, which also appears to be the
warmest day of the period (although Friday won`t be too far behind).
There could be some isolated heat index values near 105, but at this
time it does not appear that an advisory would be needed. Overnight
lows will be around 70 degrees.

Although a surface front will cross the Great Lakes mid week and
linger near the Mason-Dixon line going into the weekend, the front
should not have much impact locally on the weather. Diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the period, with
greater coverage on Tuesday and Wednesday (40-70% of the area) and
decreased coverage the rest of the period (30-50%).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

Low stratus will continue to overspread central NC tonight, with IFR
ceilings expected to reach all TAF sites over the next several
hours. LIFR ceilings will even be possible mainly across the north.
Some IFR to even LIFR visibilities from fog will also be possible
through early morning, mainly in the far NE Piedmont and northern
Coastal Plain, including RWI. Ceilings will be slow to lift, with
MVFR expected to remain widespread through the afternoon and
evening, though a period of scattering out to VFR will be possible,
so handled this with a TEMPO group at all TAF sites. Isolated
showers will be around tonight, with more widespread showers and
scattered storms expected to move in from south to north from late
morning into early evening. While sub-VFR conditions will be
possible with any heavier showers or storms, due to uncertainty in
exactly when and where they will occur, continue to handle this with
VCSH at all TAF sites. Precipitation will diminish later in the
evening, but ceilings should begin to lower back down to IFR.

Outlook: A pattern of diurnally driven showers/storms returns
through the extended period. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible each day. Patchy fog and/or low stratus will
also be possible each morning, especially in areas where rain falls
the day before.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Danco/Helock